Declining Auto Travel and Promoting Pedestrian Lifestyles

Although we have had a reprieve in high gas prices, the Brookings Institution makes a compelling case that people are starting to make permanent lifestyle changes that are leading them to drive fewer miles. See ,The Road…Less Traveled: An Analysis of Vehicle Miles Traveled Trends in the U.S. This figure was particularly striking, showing the correlation between rising gas prices and a drop in vehicle miles traveled per capita (VMTPC).

According to the report, Metro Denver has the 25th highest vehicle miles traveled per capita -6409 - of the 100 largest metro areas in the U.S. The city with the highest number was Jackson, MS with 8182 VMTPC and the city with the lowest number was, not surprisingly, New York with 3657.

The video below by Robert Puentes at Brookings explains the public policy implications of driving less. Among other ideas, Puentes thinks the Obama transportation stimulus package should be careful not to build highways to nowhere and instead make sure to fund important public transportation projects.



The decrease in VMTPC opens up an opportunity for promoting healthy, pedestrian friendly lifestyles. Denver urban enthusiast Ken Schroeppel, recently posted a blog entry on www.denverinfill.com talking about the economic, community building, public health and transportation importance of encouraging pedestrian transit in downtown Denver with links to the Downtown Denver Partnership's Leadership Program's report "Putting Our Best Foot Forward: Enhancing Downtown Denver's Pedestrian Environment."

Is it possible that multiple trends are converging - federal stimulus investment in transportation infrastructure, the prospect of higher energy prices, traffic congestion, a desire to reduce carbon generation, a change in aesthetic tastes favoring an urban lifestyle - which will lead to major changes in the built environment and people's lifestyles? Lets hope so.

Agglomeration Economies Help the Cluster Spread

Once an industry, like wind power, gets established in a given geographic area, up and downstream participants get drawn into the area by the positive externalities of being located near suppliers, competitors, workers and related service providers. This is clearly starting to happen in Colorado for various sub sectors in the alternative energy ecosystem.

This from The Denver Post.

"WINDSOR — Aerospace products maker Hexcel Corp. plans to open a plant in Windsor next year.

The company supplies Vestas Wind Systems with composite materials that are used to make wind turbines. Hexcel will open its plant near Vestas' blade-making plant in Windsor, about 50 miles north of Denver.

Construction of Hexcel's plant is expected to begin this month and the plant should open late next year.

Hexcel chairman and CEO Dave Berges says demand for wind turbines is expected to grow now that 30 states have pushed utilities to use more renewable energy.

The Stamford-Conn.-based company hasn't announced any details about how many new jobs the plant will bring."

The FasTracks I-225 Intra-Suburban Beltway Corridor

The issues surrounding the proposed Purple Line on the Washington D.C. subway system are very relevant for FasTracks. See below for an extended excerpt from an article titled "Greening the Suburbs" from The New Republic's environmental blog, The Vine.

The Purple Line in Maryland would be the first intra-suburban rail transit line in the D.C. system because it would not carry people from the suburbs to the city center in a hub-spoke model but instead would follow the beltway around the city carrying people between the suburbs. The purple line provides connectivity between the spoke lines near the perimeter of the system allowing for transfers to occur away from the city center.

In the FasTracks system, the analogous line is the I-225 Corridor which will connect the Southeast and East Corridors together and make it easier for Southeast riders to travel to DIA as well as serving new destinations in Aurora. This line is an intra-suburban beltway line like the purple line in D.C.

Some of the proposed solutions to the FasTracks budget deficit involve shortening the I-225 Corridor including not completing loop and terminating the line before the connection to the East Corridor at the Peoria/Smith Station. As I have said in previous posts, I believe any cuts to the FasTracks system including the I-225 line would be a huge mistake.

Excerpt from "Greening the Suburbs:"

"The logic undergirding the Purple Line is that D.C.'s Metro, like most old-school subways, is a hub-and-spoke model, built for an era when people lived in the suburbs and commuted downtown for work. Nowadays, though, most traffic flows from suburb to suburb—hence the need to interlink Montgomery County and Prince George's County. Most area residents favor some sort of connecting line; the bickering is over the details. Marc Elrich, a Montgomery County councilman, explained that he was agonizing about whether Maryland should spend $1.2 billion on a fixed light-rail system projected to transport 64,000 people per day, or spend just $600 million on a bus rapid transit (BRT) system with a dedicated lane, projected to transport 58,000, and use the savings for other worthwhile initiatives.

Chris Leinberger, a Brookings expert on development who comes at things from a real-estate perspective, countered that Elrich was approaching this too narrowly. Leinberger argued that transportation tends to drive development, and that transit projects should be viewed as a means of creating new value in a metro area. In that vein, he argued that middle-class people like trains well enough, but often refuse to ride buses, which carry the stigma of poverty; as a result, developers are much more likely to invest around rail stations than bus stops. (This may not be an ironclad law, but, alas, the United States has relatively few examples of successful BRT, a la the famous system in Curitiba, Brazil).

What's more, Leinberger assured the audience, developers will flutter to new light-rail stops in droves, because there's colossal pent-up demand in this country for transit-oriented development. By his count, some 30 to 50 percent of residents in U.S. metropolitan areas want to live in a walkable urban environment—a trend fueled by the growing number of single and childless couples, who will constitute 88 percent of household growth through 2040. Trouble is, he estimates there are currently only enough walkable neighborhoods to satisfy about 5 to 10 percent of metro residents, which is why rents in transit-accessible areas are so exorbitant. (Incidentally, the boom in childless households is one reason why development in D.C. could start to expand beyond Montgomery County and toward the northeastern suburbs, which have long been hampered by relatively inferior schools.)

Of course, to fix all this, new rail lines alone won't suffice. The towns around the proposed stops will have to revamp their zoning codes to allow high-density development near train stations—a suggestion that's typically greeted by angry, pitchfork-wielding mobs. (Ryan Avent recently dredged up a perfect example.) Now, since these changes in land use can both reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and bring down the cost of housing, Leinberger argued that environmentalists and social-justice activists should be at the forefront here. "Instead," he said, "you've just been leaving it up to developers—and no one seems to trust us!" Not that developers will ever be irrelevant: One interesting point Leinberger made was that if transit really does create the sort of value he expects, then real-estate developers should be more willing to pitch in and help finance these projects."

Governor Ritter on The News Hour

"Think in a state like Colorado, it's got 5 million people, but we have, again, 100-plus projects that we could have shovels in the ground in 90 days. And if you infuse our economy with, let's say, $500 million worth of transportation projects in 30 to 180 days, that puts people to work in a sector that has suffered.

And think about that nationwide. Gov. Schwarzenegger today said there are $136 billion worth of highway projects that are on the shelf that we could immediately change around, right, we could put shovels in the ground in 90 to 120 days.

Add to that clean-energy jobs. Think about wind farms and solar farms. The manufacturing end of that, you can create jobs on the manufacturing end of that in a whole new industry by investing in that industry and by really doing things with the stimulus package that don't cost money, other than through tax credit and ways to incentivize people to get into the industry."

Governor Bill Ritter on The News Hour, December 2, 2008. Click here for the full transcript.

I keep wondering if a combination of the recent sharp declines in commodities prices and the prospect of incremental infrastructure funds from an Obama Administration will end up solving the FasTracks budget shortfall? Its probably a long shot but one can hope.

Image from www.pbs.org.

Progress Report on Colorado Officials' Asia Trip

The Rocky Mountain News had an interesting wrap up of Governor Ritter and other Colorado officials' trip to Asia.

"PROGRESS REPORT

The delegation to Asia said it made progress on several fronts, though no major business deals were signed during the trip. Some highlights:

* Colorado State University signed four agreements to collaborate with research institutions in China and Japan.

* Colorado promoted its renewable energy, tourism and biosciences industry.

* All Nippon Airways said Denver is in the running for a nonstop flight to Tokyo, with service starting as early as 2010."

Happy 150th Denver

Both The Rocky and The Post have excellent special sections commemorating the 150th anniversary of the City of Denver. Happy Birthday Denver.

ConocoPhillips Delay

Given the state of the economy and the drop in fuel prices, its not surprising that ConocoPhillips has pushed out the opening of its Louisville campus and scaled back some of its alternative energy investment plans. Lets hope this is only a temporary delay and not a permanent change in strategy. Even a short-term delay will have negative effects on the local economy and hurt the chances of some of the proposed nearby hotel and office developments.

United to Renew Denver to London Daily Flight

Thankfully, not all of the news out of DIA these days is about turbulence and retrenchment. United Airlines is planning to restart the Denver to London flight next spring.

NREL Expansion Plans

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), a key component of the Denver region's green energy cluster, plans to grow its operations in Golden substantially as detailed in The Rocky Mountain News.

NREL Director, Dan Arvizu recently gave a presentation to congressional staffers on the role of the lab and its future plans which includes an Aerial view of what the NREL Golden campus would look like when it is fully built out. Go here to view the presentation.

Photo above is a 2007 aerial view of NREL campus. Courtesy of DOE/NREL, Credit - Patrick Corkery.

Governor Ritter Headed to Asia

Governor Ritter is headed to China and Japan to help promote Colorado as a renewable energy and bioscience hub and to lobby All Nippon Airways for a direct flight between Tokyo and Denver. Increasing Colorado's global ties is a worthy endeavor, which could lead to long-term economic benefits, even though its probably an uphill battle in the short term given today's economic environment.

This trip has been well covered by the two major Denver daily papers.

According to the November 10, Denver Post

"Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter will lead a 40-person delegation to Japan and China departing Saturday to promote direct Tokyo-Denver flights and other economic ties.

Joining Ritter on the 10-day trip will be officials from the Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade, the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Colorado State University."

See the Rocky Mountain News from November 11.

"Gov. Bill Ritter will lead a trade mission bound for Japan and China this weekend in hopes of securing a daily nonstop flight between Tokyo and Denver and to promote Colorado as a renewable energy and biosciences research hub.

The mission follows a handful of trips in recent months by economic development and tourism officials attempting to increase Colorado's visibility in Asia - and the state's chances of being chosen by All Nippon Airways for a direct flight from Tokyo."

An earlier blog entry describes the "Ascent to Asia" campaign to achieve a non-stop flight from Denver to Asia.

Summary of Possible Obama Energy Plans

The R-Squared Energy Blog provides an interesting high level summary of possible Obama energy plans. These plans could have a big impact on the Denver region.

What Will the Obama Administration Mean for Colorado?

After the historic presidential election yesterday, I got to wondering how an Obama Administration will impact economic development in Colorado. Given the central role that Colorado's electoral votes played in last night's Obama victory coalition and the fact that Colorado is likely to remain a battleground state in future elections, the state is well poised to benefit from the incoming administration. Some of the intriguing questions which popped into my mind include:

• Will any Colorado political figures - Pena, Ritter, etc - play prominent roles in the Obama administration?
• How much will Colorado benefit from Obama's plans to invest $15 billion a year in alternative energy development?
• Will a new Obama stimulus package include the infrastructure investments he has hinted at? How much will flow to Colorado? Could some of the FasTracks deficits be ameliorated by new federal infrastructure funds?
  

Short Term Turbulence for DIA

Happy Halloween. It has been a truly ghoulish month for the economy.

(photo provided courtesy of Denver International Airport)

One of the central themes of this blog is that Denver International Airport (DIA) serves as a powerful economic engine for the Denver Region and Colorado. However, as jet fuel costs have increased, airlines have scaled back their flights and the U.S. macro economy declined, it has been a tough stretch for DIA and other airports around the country.

1) Frontier entered bankruptcy and reduced its flight schedule.

2) DIA's international ambitions have been curtailed, at least temporarily, as Lufthansa has ended its daily non-stop flight between Munich and Denver and United ends its daily non-stop service between Denver and London. British Airways will continue to fly the Denver to London route and Lufthansa will provide daily non-stop service between Denver and Frankfurt.

3) DIA has put its plans to expand Concourse C on hold in anticipation of declining flights and passengers as airlines cut back their routes. Additionally, the construction of an airport hotel will likely be delayed and/or scaled back.

Despite these developments, there are still reasons to be sanguine about the airport's prospects. First, DIA has achieved record monthly air volumes in 2008 including breaking the 5 million passengers per month threshold for the first time ever in July. Southwest continues to expand its flights at and destinations served from DIA. Also, to date, the airport has not lost any major hub carriers unlike some other airports around the country. Recently DIA's bond's have been given strong ratings indicating the airport is financially well positioned to weather the current turbulence.

In the long term, as the broader U.S. economy improves, I believe DIA will continue to be a powerful economic growth driver for the region and the airport will resume its upward financial and operational trajectory.

Venture Capital & Hotel Development Funds Driven by Green Energy in Colorado

The impact of the credit crunch and the likely recession is slowing down capital flows, job creation, real estate development and many other positive economic development indicators in the Denver Region and around the U.S. However, among the gloom, I have noticed two related positive trends, recently reported in the Boulder Daily Camera which link back to the emerging green energy cluster in Metro Denver.

First, there appears to be a wave of hotel development forming which will hit the U.S. 36 Corridor in Broomfield sparked by the ConocoPhillips plans for the former Storage Tech site. Despite the fact that the hotel business is one of the most cyclical sectors of the real estate market which tracks very closely with the macro economy, there are as many as eight different hotel projects in various stages of planning in this area. These plans are clearly driven by the large number of business travelers who are expected to come to the Interlocken area as part of the ConocoPhillips international training and alternative energy research facilities.

Second, despite a national downturn in venture capital deals, compared to the third quarter of last year, Colorado either held steady or increased its flow of funds according to two reports cited in the Camera. This was due to investments in alternative energy companies such as AVA Solar Inc. with operations in the state.

A View of the Rockies believes the development of renewable energy will change the U.S. economy as profoundly as the emergence of the Internet or the railroad network did in the previous times. It won't be an easy transition and its hard to predict when critical mass will be reached and the changes will ramp up to full effect. However, when the green energy revolution does come, it will dramatically boost the economic wealth and power of the cities and regions that play host to this sector.

In the immediate term, the U.S. economy appears to be headed for lean economic times with contractions occurring in many sectors of the economy. However, the Denver Region can outperform the U.S. as a whole if it can continue to build an alternative energy economy. In the longer term, the development of this sector holds transformative possibilities for Colorado.

Rebchook Reprints Marilee Utter

John Rebchoock's October 1 Rocky column is an article by Marilee Utter which contains a lot of wisdom.

"By curtailing sprawl and sharing facilities regional and local jurisdictions can create affordable infrastructure. This infrastructure includes water, wastewater treatment, roads, transit, power, emergency services, snow removal, schools, fire and safety departments and more. The end of suburban sprawl cuts government service operating costs by 25 - 40+% because there is less physical area to maintain and service.There are many descriptive phrases: 'cluster zoning'; 'connected communities'; 'new ruralism'; 'new urbanism'; 'transit villages'. What it all comes down to is creating compact development in circumscribed areas while devoting a great majority of land to open space that can be used for active and passive recreation. But, what we aim for in 'connected communities' (to use one phrase) is to have a range of housing that goes well beyond the single-family model."